UKCP09 Projections

UKCP09 provides probabilistic climate projections for UK land and marine regions. They are ‘A projection of future absolute climate that assigns a probability level to different climate outcomes’1 for:

1. Annual, seasonal and monthly climate averages.

2. Individual 25 km grid squares, and for pre-defined aggregated areas.

3. Seven 30 year time periods.

4. Three emissions scenarios.

5. Projections are based on change relative to a 1961-1990 baseline.2


  1. Probabilistic climate projection
  2. About the climate change projections

Urban Heat Island

The phenomenon whereby air and surface temperatures in towns and cities are elevated in relation to surrounding rural areas.


After Oke, 1982.